Natasha Romero Moskala
MIT Department: Political Science
Faculty Mentor: Prof. Mai Hassan
Research Supervisors: In Song Kim
Undergraduate Institution: Virginia Commonwealth University
Hometown: Valencia, Venezuela
Website: LinkedIn
Biography
Natasha Romero Moskala is a rising senior at Virginia Commonwealth University
pursuing a dual degree in Political Science with a concentration in International Relations,
and Business Management with a concentration in Administration. Her research focuses on
Latin American Politics and International Political Economy. She has presented her research at conferences such as the National Conference on Undergraduate Research and recently presented a project she did in partnership with the United States Department of State at their Diplomacy Lab Fair. Currently, Natasha is a research assistant in the Trade Lab for Dr. In Song Kim. Additionally, through the Global Diversity Lab, Natasha is pursuing a personal research project under the mentorship of Dr. Mai Hassan, where she aims to analyze Venezuela’s 2013 presidential election using the Beber and Scacco model. After graduation, she is interested in pursuing a Ph.D. in Political Science, where she seeks to contribute to the Latin America research field by studying authoritarian regimes.
Abstract
Election Fraud in Latin America:
Using the Beber and Scacco Model to Examine Maduro’s Victory
Natasha Romero Moskala1
1Department of Political Science, Virginia Commonwealth University
Following the death of Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the nation underwent a contentious presidential election, which the current president, Nicolas Maduro, won by 50.61% of the votes. Many argue, however, that these results were fraudulent, and instead, the Democratic Unity Roundtable’s nominee, Henrique Capriles Radonski, was the legitimate winner of the 2013 election. Using the Beber and Scacco model to detect non-naturally occurring data, this study analyzes polling station data from the 2013 presidential election results, as obtained from Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE). To further understand the model’s accuracy and the research’s complexity, this study analyzes scholarly articles on the Beber and Scacco model, how it can be applied to election results, and factors that may suggest fraud in authoritarian regimes. Furthermore, this work leverages Venezuela’s 2011 census data to identify patterns and predict where authoritarian leaders commit fraud- whether they target polling stations where they are historically high-performing or choose to change votes where their competitors have a stronghold. Based on the results, this study will advance our understanding of authoritarian governments in Latin America and where they decide to commit fraud.
